Could Coal Trains Be A Black Swan In Our Future?

The Black Swan is a concept of the destructive unexpected event that was popularized by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a Lebanese-born short seller who became an acclaimed book author after becoming very wealthy shorting the bubbles of the last decade. Typically, these bubbles are perceived at the outset as great opportunities. So was greeted the news that SSA Marine, the giant, worldwide port operator had gained an opportunity to build the Gateway Pacific Terminal at Cherry Point to load trains of coal from Montana on to ships for China.

SSA Marine, having sought this opportunity for years, came on with a blitzkrieg PR campaign to gain the support of most office holders in the state from the governor to the mayors of Lynden and Ferndale, who posed for ads supporting the terminal. Why not? This means jobs and increased tax revenue. For Birch Bay it could mean well-paid buyers of houses and lots that have been hard to sell and new houses, perhaps more new developments like Bay Crest.

Andy McCauley, president of the Bellingham Port Commission, told a group of Birch Bay residents at a recent information breakfast that, having grown up where coal is burned, he hates it, yet he is supporting the terminal because it means “economic opportunity.”

But, unlike most Black Swans that are “unexplainable and unpredictable until after the fact,” this bird is being met head on. The arguments fall into three categories:

Global Environmental Ethics – Are we increasing global warming by sending coal to China? On the other hand China will get coal from elsewhere and, if they buy it from us, the U.S. will reduce our imbalance of payments. A third hand would be that the Chinese may invest the money and engineering skills to make “clean coal” a reality.

Noise and Congestion – If projections are met, there may be as many as 14 trains, as long as a mile and a half, running through Bellingham and Ferndale daily.

Health Degradation – In a letter published by the Northern Light on March 10, Don Pitcairn, president of Surrey's United Naturalists reported on the experience of residents of the Tsawwassen First Nation's reserve, located next to the Delta Superport that is British Columbia's “gateway.” He included airborne coal dust pollution, and black tide caused by particulate from trains, ships and trucks plus a stagnant seashore due to currents impeded by causeways.

In a letter to community members Bob Ferris, executive director of ReSources, quotes a warning from Cherie Eichholz, executive director of Washington Physicians for Social Responsibility that, “Coal dust has been linked to respiratory diseases.”

Bob Ferris – the full title of his organization is ReSources for Sustainable Communities – is the captain of the folks who are standing up to the advocates who include Peabody Coal, Goldman Sachs, that owns 49 percent of SSA Marine and Warren Buffett, a principal owner of BNSF, the railroad that will haul the coal from Montana and Wyoming. Information about “No Coal at Cherry Point” can be found at www.re-sources.org.

A comprehensive article on the subject was published in the April issue of Whatcom Watch (www.whatcomwatch.org). It was written by Dr. Preston Schiller who teaches courses on transportation planning and environmental issues at Huxley College of the Environment at Western. He studied the coal industry in West Virginia and worked on U.S. Clean Air Acts.

The permitting process will involve many agencies from the Whatcom County Council to NOAA and is expected to take four years. There will be ample opportunity for Birch Bay community members input including the election of county council members and the county executive.

In addition to the above sources, Jeremy Schwartz has been providing balanced reporting in the Northern Light. And you can expect the Cascadia Weekly to provide reporting and offer opinion.

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As always, comments are eagerly sought.