Birch Bay in 30 Years?

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Whatcom officialdom is going through a process of determining where the expected number of future residents should live. It is estimated the county’s population will grow to over 251,000 by 2031. That’s approximately 60,000 more than present. (We round these numbers off to emphasize they are estimates, whereas the county’s calculators use numbers like 60,490.)

The state’s Growth Management Act requires counties to create their own growth plans, allocating expected growth to particular areas. Whatcom County is behind and losing out on six-figure state grants. A Growth Management Hearings Board told Whatcom to catch up by June 30. So last fall the County Council formed a Growth Management Coordinating Council to advise on deciding how many of the expected new residents should go where. That group consists of two county council members and the mayors of the seven cities in the county, but not representatives of the two unincorporated UGAs, Birch Bay and Columbia Valley.

The county planning department then began a series of community meetings with an informational website and questionnaires. Thursday, February 5, the Birch Bay Steering Committee sponsored a meeting with Gary Davis and Kate Koch of the planning department. Among their maps was one showing what land the planning department views as available for building.

Informed members of the community found these maps wholly inaccurate. Bill Grant was outraged, citing his own and other properties colored as vacant that are approved and platted for development. Lisa Guthrie, who represents Homestead, was relaxed but nonetheless critical.

Koch and Davis were not devastated. Such happens, they explained, and kept smiling, passing out colored pencils for participants to mark up the large maps arranged conveniently on tables.

In a conversation a week later, Kate Koch (pronounced cook), when asked what medication she used to maintain equanimity, said, “Green tea is enough”.

She said that a few days after the meeting she went back to Birch Bay with staff and the map-makers to look at the questioned properties. Guthrie, as the representative of Homestead, seems to know all the available land in the UGA. She wrote to Koch in an e-mail that, “I do not feel we have near the physical capacity of density that has been assumed.”

If you split the difference between two annual growth rates used by the planners in this exercise (7.5 percent and 4.8 percent) to 6.2 percent and compound out 10 years from the estimated Birch Bay population last year (5,292), you come to 9,094 by 2018.

But this subject is akin to a white glove inspection of a platoon’s barracks before the soldiers ship overseas – purposeful but relatively insignificant because of uncertainty. What is important is that this exercise confronts the Birch Bay community with the need to decide its own future.

All comments are welcomed.



ak

Birch Bay learns from Lummi Island

In the 1980’s, one of the big geological questions was, “Is the Cascadia Subduction Zone magically greased?” The issue was, would it slide smoothly or stick dangerously, Brian Atwater told a large assemblage at the Lummi Island Grange Hall. Atwater is a geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey’s Earthquake Hazards Team.

“It’s a detective story, with the earth giving the clues”, Atwater said, as he showed a slide of a 2005 dig where layers of sand indicated when tsunamis had occurred in Sumatra, one about every 600 years. Forces at the epicenter in the Indian Ocean, stuck for hundreds of years, broke loose in December 2004 and created a 9.0 magnitude earthquake. Through uplift and subsidence, a series of immense waves wreaked havoc and devastation on millions of people. Had that geologist made her discovery a few years earlier, those people may have been warned of the possibility.

Ancient writings and trees rings solved another detective story. In 1700, Japan experienced an “orphan tsunami”. Six writings preserved from Japan described the “orphan tsunami”, the only one from 1536 to 1995 that could not be associated with perceivable “shaking” in Chile or Peru. However, dendrochronologist David Yamaguchi, working with Atwater at the University of Washington in 1997, proved through tree ring analysis that a massive earthquake occurred in the Cascadia Subduction Zone in 1700. The force was sufficient to explain the Japanese tsunami of the same year.

Following Atwater’s presentation, Terry Terry, chair of the Lummi Island Community Association that hosted the event, introduced Stacy Fawell, from the Department of Natural Resources of the Lummi Nation. She outlined the earthquake/tsunami preparation and mitigation steps taken by the Lummi Nation. Their multihazard mitigation plan, created with assistance from FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency), identifies and strategizes necessary efforts. They established and mapped tsunami evacuation routes with the help of the State Department of Natural Resources and posted evacuation route signs. They purchased and installed a tsunami warning system consisting of three siren towers.

To discuss the Lummi Island emergency preparations, Terry surprised John Granger, the director of Lummi Island’s emergency management activities, with an invitation to take the floor. He said he had observed the small villages outside the major cities affected by hurricane Katrina had to wait a long time for help. He asked Fire Chief Duncan McLane if Lummi Island was prepared for a similar event. He reports that Chief McLane said, “No we’re not, why don’t you take care of that?”

Bringing together the NGOs (non-government organizations), churches, water districts, and other community residents, several members attended a State Emergency Management Conference. There they learned about the Map Your Neighborhood concept. They decided on a three-step process for their island: first organize, then create maps and do table top exercises, and, finally, do a full community drill. He says they have been working on step one for three years, but actually, a large percentage of the island is mapped.

The group has identified: landing zones for sea and land planes; special hazards on the island such as the water reservoir above a residential development; Red Cross shelters (the Grange Hall being one, with an emergency kitchen); healthcare providers able to serve during an emergency; equipment and medications needed for a “push package” from the Wasjington State Department of Emergency Management. First Aid Training is going on now, and they are considering CERT (Community Emergency Response Team) training.

The Fire District leads Lummi Island’s Emergency Management program and they recommend every individual maintain a seven-day emergency kit of food, water and necessary supplies.

Kathy Berg, chair of the Birch Bay Steering Committee; Doralee Booth, vice-chair of the Steering Committee and chair of the Public Safety and Transportation Subcommittee, and Ruth Higgins, leader of the Emergency Preparedness Task Force attended at the invitation of Ms. Terry.




rah

Birch Bay Does New Year's Well

The Ring of Fire and Hope in the early New Year’s Eve and the Polar Bear Plunge New Year’s Day make Birch Bay a genuine destination for the holiday.

The Ring, started by Mike Kent several years ago, is becoming an unique tradition with road flares encircling the bay. Each year there are more. One day – yes, we can hope – the rim of fire will be complete. This photo shows the action at Alderson Beach. What we like most is the conviviality of strangers in the dark lighting the flares and enjoying the spectacle.

This was the 26th Plunge – actually there have been 27, the counters lost track or the first one didn’t qualify – sponsored by the Birch Bay Chamber of Commerce. Overnight snow didn’t deter participants. A small group of eager plungers waited at the door of the Visitors’ Information Center for registration to begin at 9:30.

Registration was free this year and commemorative T-shirts sold for $15. The reason for registration was to get a count, provide certificates of participation and offer coupon books of merchant specials. Over 220 signed up for the plunge, a few more than last year, and some uncounted number opt out of registering.

One of the happiest plungers was Dr. Bruce Pederson of the Birch Bay Family Medicine Clinic. In the water for the 12th year, he did more than the required “up to your shoulders” – he swam out a ways and floated on his back before strolling back to shore.

First time plunger, Lisa Guthrie, the Chamber’s new president, said she “couldn’t feel a thing, it was so cold.” She and Kelvin Barton were still smiling after their dip.

Judging for the best individual “costume” was easy. This "doll" gained everyone’s attention well before the judging began.

A new category, farthest distance traveled to the event, was more difficult. Early in the morning a fellow from Tokyo was the favorite. Then a young woman from Germany said, “Look it up.” Sure enough, she was ahead by 300 miles. Then, just before the prizes were awarded, a man showed up from Hong Kong.

Those folks, the one or two thousand onlookers, the Ring of Fire and Hope lighters, and the merchants offering specials are all examples of what makes Birch Bay a place to celebrate every day of the year, but particularly on New Year's

Holiday Greetings

Wishing you Peace, Love

and (hopefully) Prosperity

now and in the coming year.


Al & Ruth

Prevention Trumps Detention

Last last Tuesday afternoon, as others were preparing to go to the five-hour discussion of Whatcom County’s budget to successfully argue for retention of our neighborhood sheriff, we sat down with Deputy Sheriff Cliff Langley. He has been looking after Birch Bay since May of 2007. The conversation further convinced us that the community is fortunate to have this officer in our presence.

While no figures are yet available to compare crime in Birch Bay before and after he was assigned, Deputy Cliff does not think crime is a major problem here now. But he cautions, “If people want a safe community, they need to be involved.”

He cites the experience of a man who saw a group of youths checking car doors. They were out of his sight before they found a vehicle to ransack. Asked why he didn’t report what he saw, the man said, “Nothing was happening.”

Deputy Cliff’s point is that had the man called 9-1-1, the break-in might have been prevented. “Too many are apathetic.” He would like to see a Block Watch or Map Your Neighborhood program to enhance citizen involvement.

Those who don’t want to “snitch” can take comfort from the deputy’s approach. When neighbors complained about young people throwing loud parties, he talked with the parents. The noisy parties stopped. “My goal is to educate and keep kids out of trouble, rather than to make arrests,” he explains.

Deputy Cliff has mixed views about speeding. Naturally, he welcomes reports but he cautions that cars seem to be going faster than they actually are. In one case, he was talking to a resident who said, “Look how that car is speeding.” The deputy checked his radar to find that the car was well within the posted limit.

The most difficult issues are domestic disputes, “Sometimes you can’t be sure which party will pull a gun.” In 24 years in law enforcement, Deputy Cliff has never had to fire his weapon in action. But every time he puts on his uniform, he says he thinks, “Today might be the day.” He taps his protective vest.